Eldridge campaign touts new polling

The campaign for Sean Eldridge is touting a new poll by the left-leaning Public Policy Polling that say they shows Rep. Chris Gibson trailing a Democratic opponent if the 2014 election was held today.

The poll was commissioned and paid for by MoveOn.org Political Action and done from Oct. 3-4, in the wake of the partial shutdown of the federal government. The poll surveyed 897 people in the 19th congressional district, where Eldridge says he’ll challenge Gibson, R-Kinderhook.

I have a call out to PPP to see what the margin of error is. UPDATE: The margin of error for this NY-19 poll is 3.3 percent.

MoveOn is a left-leaning political advocacy group.

The poll asks people a series of questions, but gets down to it by question 6 and 7:

 

Q6 Would you be less likely or more likely to
support Congressman Gibson if you knew he
voted to support shutting down major activities
of the federal government as a way to stop the
health care law from being put into place, or
does it not make a difference?
Less likely ………………………………………………. 53%
More likely………………………………………………. 33%
No difference ………………………………………….. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

 

It then plainly asserts that Gibson supported the shutdown:
Q7 Now that you know Congressman Gibson
supported the government shutdown, I’ll ask
you one more time: If the election for Congress
were held today, would you vote for re-elect
Republican Chris Gibson, or would you vote for
his Democratic opponent?
Chris Gibson…………………………………………… 42%
Democratic opponent……………………………….. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

 

Yet Gibson’s recent actions have been more complicated then the polls questioning belies.

On Sept. 19, Gibson voted “yes” for a House bill that tied delaying parts of the Affordable Care Act for a year to funding the federal government. Then, last Sunday, Gibson changed his position and voted against a House bill that tied defunding the Affordable Care Act to funding the federal government.

The bill was seen as a non-starter in the Senate, and it was. The Senate voted no and parts of the federal government have been shuttered ever since.

Gibson said he changed his position because he said he didn’t agree with the approach. He now says he supports tying funding the government with a repeal of a medical device tax as a path to reopening the federal government.

Stephanie Valle, Gibson’s campaign spokeswoman, countered the polling and took an extra dig at Eldridge by pointing to an article in the New Republic. That’s owned by Facebook co-founder Chris Hughes, who is also Eldirdge’s husband.

“The New Republic best sums up PPP, saying they use ‘amateurish’ techniques and the firm ‘does not inspire trust.’ Instead of using flawed polling to try and score political points, we all should be focused on working together to reopen our federal government and enact policies that grow our economy. Congressman Gibson remains in Washington, working with a group of his bipartisan colleagues, to advance a solution that’s in the best interest of our constituents and country.”

The New Republic article can be found here:  http://www.newrepublic.com/article/114682/ppp-polling-methodology-opaque-flawed

Still, others have given more credit to PPPs polling techniques, such as the Fordham University Center for Electoral Politics and Democracy. You can find that release here.

You can find the PPP poll here.

 

 

 

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