Siena poll: Amedore leads Tkaczyk days before election

Two days before election, a Siena College poll shows GOP contender George Amedore leading incumbent Democrat Sen. Cecilia Tkaczyk by 11 points.

The GOP contender for the 46th state Senate district leads Tkaczyk, 54-43 percent, the poll shows. The number has barely budged from the last poll Siena did that showed he had a 52-42 percent lead.

The 46th Senate District covers the towns of Esopus, Hurley, Kingston, Lloyd, Marbletown, Saugerties, Ulster and Woodstock in Ulster as well as the City of Kingston. It reaches into five counties: Montgomery, Greene, Albany, Schenectady and Ulster counties.

“Amedore continues to have the support of 80 percent of Republicans, he’s grown his support among Democrats from 15 percent to now 25 percent, and he continues to have a strong lead with independents,” Siena spokesman Steven Greenberg said. “Tkaczyk continues to run virtually even in the Ulster/Greene portion of the district and continues to trail badly, now by 20 points, in the Albany/Montgomery/Schenectady portion of the district.”

Greenburg says there is “virtually no gender gap” between Democratic women and Republican men as Amedore leads with men by 14 points and with women by nine points. Greenburg says Tkaczyk’s favorability rating has taken a hit.

“Amedore continues to have a strong favorability rating, 54-35 percent, only down net six points from 53-28 percent, Tkaczyk’s favorability rating has taken a bigger hit. She has a negative 42-46 percent favorability rating, down from a positive 44-34 percent previously,” Greenberg said. “Amedore has more Democrats viewing him favorably than Tkaczyk has Republicans, and is viewed strongly favorably by independents, who view Tkaczyk strongly unfavorably.”

Pollsters contacted 478 likely voters between Oct. 28 through Oct.30. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.5 percent. Amedore has the Republican, Conservative and Independence party lines while Tkaczyk has the Democratic and Working Family Party lines.

Greenburg also says that Tkaczyk won’t get much help at the polls from Gov. Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat. Cuomo only has support from 38 percent of voters in the 46th Senate District.

“Amedore has a decided edge, even though this district has slightly more Democrats than Republicans. He is viewed significantly more favorably than she is, and he is not seen by voters as running the more negative campaign. With most voters saying they are certain of their choice and very few undecided voters, Amedore’s path to victory seems far less bumpy than Tkaczyk’s,” Greenberg said.

For all you crosstab lovers, here you go.

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