A look ahead at the boys swimming and diving championship meets

Swimmers are off the blocks on the 200-meter freestyle relay during a Section 9, Class AA Boys swim meet between Monroe-Woodbury and Minisink Valley at the Monroe-Woodbury Middle School in Central Valley on Monday, January 13, 2014. (John Meore photo/for the Times Herald-Record)

I caught up with members of the Minisink Valley boys’ swimming and diving team on Wednesday, talking about their remarkable 10-0 start to the dual meet season. The Warriors were thinking this year might be one of the rebuilding variety after losing 11 point-scoring seniors to graduation.

Check back on Varsity845.com on Monday for their story and the video.

We also got talking about some big meets on the OCIAA schedule over the next few weeks. New Paltz travels to Pine Bush today in a non-league battle of unbeatens. On Weds., Jan. 22, New Paltz travels to Minisink Valley in what could be another battle of undefeated teams, potentially with the Division II title on the line in the regular season finale.

With the OCIAA and Section 9 championship meets right around the corner, I thought I’d take a stab at which teams might compete for the team scoring titles. I opened an Excel sheet and started plugging in swimmers in each event based on the Section 9 Top 40 list on Section9Swim.com.

So, before I get to my results, let me just say that this was a very unscientific way of making a prediction. I can’t guess how coaches are going to fill out their lineups (swimmers are limited to two individual events and two relay events), so I made my best assumptions as to the two events in which swimmers would compete. There’s also plenty of time for some swimmers to improve their times with a great taper, so going by the current top 40 also skews the data a bit…we might see some swimmers really cut down those times over the next month or so.

That said, my calculations have Minisink Valley edging out New Paltz, 346-316.

Click here to see the file.

Varsity845′s projected finish at the local championship meets:

Minisink Valley, 346
New Paltz, 316
Pine Bush, 241
NFA, 232
Kingston, 222
Warwick, 203
Washingtonvile, 186
Monroe-Woodbury, 165
Middletown, 123
Cornwall, 108
Valley Central, 53
Marlboro, 38

We’ll see what happens, but the OCIAA championships might come down to the final event, the 400 freestyle relay. Should be an exciting meet.

Question my math? Let me know on Twitter: @THR_Montgomery.

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    Ken McMillan

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