Trying to predict the 2016 boys swimming championship meets

Washingtonville's Leo LaPorte competes in the 100-yard butterfly during a meet against Washingtonville in Slate Hill on Jan. 21, 2016. (WILL MONTGOMERY/TIMES HERALD-RECORD)

I’ve done this a few times before during particularly competitive swimming seasons in Section 9. Let’s try to predict what’s going to happen at the championship meets coming up in a few weeks.

A few notes before we get to the data.

  • This is a highly speculative process with a lot of assumptions built in. So things are bound to change. This is a best guess. I have used the Top 40 database on Section9Swim.comĀ to try to build a realistic championship meet roster, limiting swimmers to a maximum of two events each. Of course, there are many swimmers who could compete in any number of events…and that would throw off the numbers that I came up with. So take this with a grain of salt.
  • Also, these are based on times through Jan. 21 meets. Expect times to start dropping by Counties and especially at the Section 9 championships. So someone currently seeded sixth could have a great swim, move up a few spots and shake up the scoring.

That said, it looks like we’re going to be in for some really interesting meets in the next few weeks.

By my best guess, I have Minisink Valley beating Monroe-Woodbury, 306-302. Yeah, it’s going to be close. We’ll see what happens with the lineups, but I had Monroe-Woodbury going in front after the breaststroke after taking spots 1-2-5. It could all come down to Minisink Valley vs. Monroe-Woodbury in the 400 freestyle relay at the end.

Here is the spreadsheet with the details if you’re so interested.

TH-R Section 9 boys swimming and diving championship meet predicted order of finish:

1. Minisink Valley, 306

2. Monroe-Woodbury, 302

3. Newburgh Free Academy, 269

4. Washingtonville, 211

5. Pine Bush, 209

6. New Paltz, 205

7. Cornwall, 171

8. Marlboro, 162

9. Kingston, 109

10. Valley Central, 100

11. Warwick, 71

12. Middletown, 65

t-13. Poughkeepsie and Rhinebeck, 45

15. Rondout Valley, 24

16. Goshen, 12

17. John S. Burke Catholic, 10

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