Taking a second look at predicting the OCIAA swim championships

The diving portion of the OCIAA boys swimming & diving championships was postponed to Monday (3:30 p.m. at Washingtonville High), so I thought I’d take a second look at trying to predict the final team scoring now that the psych sheet is out.

The math here is based on all of the seeds placing according to the rankings, which is very unlikely to happen. Some kids are going to have better swims than others, there could be DQs, etc. But this gives us a pretty good idea of what to expect. So take this with a grain of salt.

Now that the diving will be the final event, we won’t be able to call a winner after the swimming portion on Saturday. It’s going to be a tight meet.

Projected final team scores, 2016 OCIAA boys swimming and diving championships

1. Minisink Valley, 316

2. Monroe-Woodbury, 308

3. Washingtonville, 219

4. Newburgh Free Academy, 211

5. Pine Bush, 202

6. Cornwall, 193

7. New Paltz, 181

8. Marlboro-Highland-Roosevelt, 147

9. Kingston, 121

10. Valley Central, 105

11. Middletown, 87

12. Warwick, 72

13. Poughkeepsie, 48

14. Rhinebeck, 40

15. Rondout Valley, 25

16. Goshen, 12

17. John S. Burke Catholic, 6

Here is the link to the spreadsheet if you want to check the math.

When I did this a few weeks ago, I had Minisink topping Monroe, 306-302. So not much has changed. Can Monroe make up eight points over the next few days? It should be fun to watch.

I’ll post updates as often as possible on Twitter: @THR_Montgomery if you can’t make it.

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